GDP growth:
+3 percent in 2013

National Accounts shows
economy at $47 billion

The Central Administration for Statistics (CAS) launched on December 19, the Lebanese National Accounts for 2012 and 2013.

National Accounts include statistics about GDP and various economic sectors. CAS released in this report the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for the last two years and revised estimates for 2011.

The report indicated that the real GDP growth increased from 0.9 percent in 2011 to 2.8 percent in 2012 and three percent in 2013. Marwan Barakat, Head of Research at Bank Audi, said: “These numbers reflect the reality, to a large extent.”

Barakat said that several factors enhanced this growth, mainly good rate of consumption by local residents, as well as nonresident Lebanese and Syrian refugees. The stimulus packages offered by the Central Bank (BDL) also helped domestic demand.

Inflation, measured by the GDP deflator, is estimated at four percent in 2013 and 7 percent in 2012.

The level of GDP in current prices is estimated at $47.4 billion in 2013 and $44.3 billion in 2012. Barakat said that we are not in a recession, but in a “low to moderate growth.”

Wood, paper manufacturing and printing increased by seven percent in 2013, after a decline of seven percent in 2011 and two percent in 2012. Manufacturing of food products was characterized by an increase of ten percent in 2013. In fact, this sector’s activity continued to grow by four percent in 2012, six percent in 2011 and 11 percent in 2010.
Manufacturing of metal products, machinery and equipment continued to increase at a slow rate, by one percent in 2012 and two percent in 2013. Chemicals, rubber and plastic manufacturing declined by four percent in 2012 and one percent in 2013, after an increase nine percent in 2010 and three percent in 2011.

Textile and leather manufacturing registered a positive growth of eight percent in 2013, following a continuous fall of this activity in the previous three years.

Transportation activity went up by 14 percent during 2013, after an increase of three percent in 2012, and a decline of three percent in 2011.

Real estate services, which had declined by one percent in 2011 and remained constant in 2012, registered an increase of six percent in 2013. Construction activity registered a rise of seven percent in 2013, following a low increase of one percent in 2012.

Wholesale and retail trade activity increased by one percent, yearly in 2011 and 2012 and by three percent in 2013, after a positive growth of 13 percent in 2010. Agriculture and forestry fell back respectively by two percent and three percent in 2012 and 2013, after an increase of ten percent in both in 2010 and 2011.

Hotels and restaurants decreased by five percent in 2013, and three percent in 2012, compared with high activity growth characterizing the years before.

In 2013, commercial trade and motor vehicle repair shares in GDP accounted for 14 percent of the total added value. Real Estate activity shares in GDP accounted for 14 percent of the total added value.

Education, health, social welfare and personal and community services accounted for 12 percent of the total added value.

Manufacturing, mining, quarrying and utilities accounted for eight percent of the total added value. Public Administration, accounted for nine percent and transportation, hotels and restaurants, and information and communications accounted for nine percent of the total added value.

Financial services accounted for seven percent, professional and administrative services accounted for six percent, and construction accounted for six percent. Agriculture and livestock accounted for two percent.

A number of data sources were used in these estimates, principally VAT data from the Ministry of Finance, the CAS Household Budget Survey 2011/2012, and CAS Enterprise surveys for 2004-2008. In addition to Customs statistics, CAS consumer price estimates, airport and seaport movements, visitor arrivals, cement deliveries, tobacco statistics, Bank of Lebanon, the National Social Security Fund (NSSF), Middle East Airlines, Électricité Du Liban (EDL), and Centre de Recherche et d’Etudes Agricole Libanais(CREAL).