IMF revises up 2023 GDP
by 50 percent to $24 billion

Fiscal deficit reduced to 0.4 percent

In its latest assessment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Lebanon’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2023 to $24 billion, a significant increase from its earlier forecast of $16.2 billion published in June. The upward revision, amounting to 50 percent, follows adjustments in the IMF’s methodology for calculating national accounts. The announcement coincided with the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, where the IMF released its updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.

Key Economic Indicators for Lebanon (2023)

GDP Trends
Nominal GDP for 2023 is now estimated at $24 billion, a slight decrease from $24.5 billion in 2022 but an improvement over $19.8 billion in 2021. Before the economic crisis, GDP stood at $50.9 billion in 2019.

GDP per capita is projected at $4,487 for 2023, marginally higher than $4,467 in 2022 and significantly above $3,537 in 2021. In contrast, pre-crisis GDP per capita was $8,808 in 2019.

Real GDP Growth
Real GDP is expected to contract by 0.7 percent in 2023, reflecting a continued economic downturn. This follows modest growth rates of one percent in 2022 and two percent in 2021. The economy had previously shrunk by 24.6 percent in 2020, the first year of the crisis.

Inflation
Average inflation surged to 221 percent in 2023, up from 171 percent in 2022 and 155 percent in 2021. By contrast, Lebanon experienced an inflation rate of just 2.9 percent in 2019, underscoring the severity of the current economic crisis.

Trade
The country’s current account deficit is projected at 23 percent of GDP for 2023. This represents an improvement from 27.7 percent in 2022 but remains above the 18 percent deficit recorded in 2021 and the 16 percent in 2020.

Fiscal Performance
The fiscal deficit has dramatically reduced to 0.4 percent of GDP in 2023, the lowest level since 1990. This marks a significant improvement from a 6.6 percent deficit in 2022. The improved fiscal position has contributed to a decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio, from 358 percent in 2021 to 255 percent in 2022, and further down to 195 percent in 2023.

Public revenues increased to almost 13 percent of GDP in 2023 (up from 5.7 percent in 2022), while public expenditures rose to 13 percent of GDP (from 12 percent in 2022).

Outlook
While the IMF did not release economic forecasts for Lebanon beyond 2023, the report highlights both progress and persisting challenges. Stabilization efforts have yielded fiscal improvements, but substantial economic recovery remains elusive as the country grapples with inflation, external imbalances, and structural weaknesses.