World Bank expects resilient 2012 remittances

Inflows from GCC to remain robust

Inward expatriates’ remittances are expected to reach around $7.5 billion in 2012, according to the World Bank’s updated Migration and Development brief published on November 20. The World Bank expected Lebanon to be the tenth largest recipient of remittances among developing countries (in dollar value). Remittance inflows in 2011 stood at $8 billion, accounting for 18 percent of the country’s GDP.

Inflows to MENA countries are expected to reach $47 billion this year, up from $43 billion in 2011. Thus, Lebanon’s share of the region’s total remittances is expected to be 16 percent in 2012, down from bigger shares of 18 percent in 2011 and 19 percent in 2010.

The World Bank expected growth of flows to remain robust in regions that rely on remittance inflows from the US, the GCC, and Russia. More than half of remittances are from the Gulf countries.

The balance of payments recorded a deficit of $1.9 billion in the first nine months of 2012. The deficit had grown by 26 percent from the same period of last year. The deficit widening was largely attributed to a $2.7 billion outflow in net foreign assets from banks. Remittances from expatriates are one of the main sources of capital inflows.