McKinsey study made public
GDP targeted at $80 billion

Debt-to-GDP ratio is to be

lowered to 110 percent

The much awaited McKinsey Report has been published by the Ministry of Economy and Trade (MoET). It is a comprehensive five year national economic plan that was prepared by McKinsey & Company.

The ‘Lebanon Economic Vision’ study, was mandated by a government decree in October 2017.

McKinsey has set several targets for 2025 that pertain to the economy in general and to key economic sectors.

The real GDP is targeted at about $80 billion and the GDP per capita at around $16,000. The real economic growth for 2025 is set to increase to five to six percent from one to three percent in 2017.

It is aimed that the balance of payments would achieve a surplus that would represent ten percent of GDP.

The debt-to GDP ratio is to be lowered to 110 percent from 145 percent in 2017, according to the study.

The fiscal deficit would be decreased to three percent of GDP from eight percent while the inflation rate is set at 2.5 percent.

The study targets an increase of job opportunities of 370,000 by 2025. The unemployment rate would be lowered to eight percent from around 15 to 25 percent in 2017.

McKinsey focused on the industrial, agricultural, and tourism sectors as well as financial services and the knowledge economy. The tourism sector is targeted to add nearly 100,000 jobs between 2017 and 2025 and to contribute an incremental $2 billion to GDP at real prices. The industrial and financial services sectors are to contribute each $3 billion. The knowledge economy is targeted to add 60,000 jobs and $2 billion. The objective for agriculture is $1 billion and just 5,000 jobs.

The study can be accessed on InfoPro’s Databank website