GDP to drop 11 percent
says European Bank

Possible six percent growth in 2021

if comprehensive reform program is implemented

A sharp fall of 11 percent in Lebanon’s GDP is expected in 2020 by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). It comes on the heels of a recession in 2018 and 2019.

According to the banks’ published report: “Regional and domestic political uncertainties culminating in domestic social unrest, slow implementation of reforms and the resulting wait-and-see approach of international partners, have led to the steep contraction.”

The EBRD said: “The situation has been exacerbated by a default on debt repayments in March 2020, the ongoing economic crisis and, most recently, the coronavirus pandemic and the associated containment measures.”

While the economic outlook remains uncertain, the recovery will depend on the speed of the implementation of key reforms, including debt restructuring in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund. If these reforms are implemented swiftly, the EBRD report expects to see a return to growth of six percent in 2021.