Expected GDP growth less than three percent

Economic outlook depends on political developments in second half of 2011

July 4, 2011- The Institute of International Finance revised downward its real GDP growth forecast for the country to between one percent and three percent for 2011, down from four percent last January.

Growth prospects will depend on political developments in the second half of the year, the IIF said in a report accounted by Byblos Bank’s Lebanon This Week.

The report said the extent of economic rebound in the second half of the year will depend on the stance of the international community regarding the degree of cooperation of the current Cabinet with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, as well as the course of the uprising in Syria, and the improvement of ties with the Gulf council countries, particularly with Saudi Arabia.

According to IIF, the fiscal deficit will probably widen this year. It forecast the primary balance to post a slight surplus of 0.9 percent of GDP and expected public revenues to contract by 2.5 percent, with tax revenues declining by 4.7 percent and non-tax revenues improving by three percent.